By: Isaac Boloten
2012 Stats:233.2 IP, 20-6 W-L, 3.27 FIP, 24.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 46.1
GB%
2012 WAR: 5.7 rWAR. 4.6 fWAR. 5.3 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
2012 was nothing short of a dream
season for the 38 year old knuckleballer. Despite statistically not being
the best pitcher in the NL, he won the Cy Young and deservedly so. At a
point in the season, Dickey was the talk of baseball, putting together an
incredible stretch of games that included back to back 1 hit shut outs versus the Rays and
Orioles. He led major league baseball in strikeouts.
2013 Season Preview
Dickey is expected to be the ace of
this loaded staff put together by AA this off-season. Many have questioned
Dickey's ability to keep up the brilliance of 2012, however what those people
may be overlooking, is that Dickey was also brilliant in 2010, and
2011. This means that the risk isn't as much as some are making it out to
be. While Dickey may not post a season as spectacular as 2012 was, there
really is no reason to expect major regression from R.A., considering a
knuckleball doesn't put too much strain on his arm. One other aspect to consider is how
pitching in the dome for half his starts will impact Dickey’s knuckleball. The controlled environment could lead to even
more movement from his already incredible dancer. While there is some dispute as to whether
this effect is real, it’s at least something to keep an eye on.
2013 Projected Role
Staff ace, and will be looked upon to
provide veteran leadership.
2013 PECOTA Projection
231 IP, 14-15 W-L, 4.30 ERA, 6.3 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 50.0 GB%.
By: Isaac Boloten
2012 Stat Line:124.2 IP, 10-7 W-L, 3.65 FIP, 21.4 K%, 8.1 BB%, 41.1
GB%.
2012 WAR: 3.2 rWAR. 2.4 fWAR. 2.0 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
2012 was a terrific year for the
fireballing right hander.While Morrow had shown flashes of brilliance in
the past, what separated Morrow's 2012 from his other years, is that he learned
how to pitch, rather than just throw. His strikeout numbers did decrease,
but along with that came improvements with his control, and an increase in his
ground ball rate. Many were talking about Morrow possibly entering the Cy
Young conversation before he injured his oblique in June. Prior to
the injury, Morrow had already recorded 3 shutouts and was absolutely
cruising. When he came back from his injury he was quite shaky, but he regained
his form in September and once again became one of the best pitchers in
the American League.
2013 Season Preview
Morrow will make his 2013 debut this
Wednesday as the #2 starter in the rotation. Many people are picking
Morrow to finally break out, as he likely would have done if not for the
injuries in 2012. However, Morrow
doesn't need to break out in order for his 2013 to be a success. If he
comes close to posting his 2012 numbers (except for innings pitched), that
could be considered a very successful season. That's what made Alex Anthopoulos’
offseason moves so great. The pressure
isn’t on one specific player, and if everyone just lives up to their potential then
the team will be in the playoff hunt come September. If I were to bet on anybody having a good year this season, it'd be Morrow.
2013 Projected Role
Morrow will act as the #2 starting
pitcher, behind R.A. Dickey. Some expect Morrow to see improvement due
to the fact that there is a knuckleballer in front of him. It certainly
won't hurt.
2013 PECOTA Projections
174 IP, 11-11 W-L, 3.88
ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 39 GB%.
Mark Buerhle – LHP – 34 Years Old
By:Marshall Henson
2012 Stat Line –202.1 IP – 13-13 W-L, 4.18 FIP, 15.1 K%, 4.8 BB%, 41.3 GB%
2012 WAR: 3.6 rWAR. 1.9 fWAR. 1.2 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Buerhle had the year you’d expect from him, in 2012, posting over 200 innings for the 12th consecutive season, along with an ERA and FIP around 4.00. While the Marlins team around him certainly didn’t live up to expectations, it wasn’t due to Buehrle not living up to expectations.
2013 Season Preview
Perhaps due to Buehrle being overshadowed by the likes of Dickey, Johnson, and Morrow in the Blue Jays’ rotation, may allow Buerhle to be the dark horse in this rotation. Buerhle will quietly (and quickly) go out every fifth day and give the Jays a chance to win. He’s as sure as it gets with his performances throughout the years, and we should expect no different this coming year.
2013 Projected Role
Buerhle will start the 2013 season as the #3 starter in the Blue Jays’ rotation, but is probably the fourth best pitcher in the Jays rotation. He’ll pitch third to avoid back to back lefties in the rotation.
2013 PECOTA Projection
207.2 IP, 13-14 W-L, 4.53 ERA, 5.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 46.1 GB%
2012 Stat Line: 191.1 IP, 8-14 W-L, 3.40 FIP, 20.7 K%, 8.2 BB%, 46.2 GB%.
2012 WAR: 3.3 rWAR. 3.4 fWAR. 2.3 bbWAR
2012 Season in
Review:
There were some highs and lows in Johnson’s season in 2012 as he
was able to pitch an excess of 190 innings after battling shoulder injuries,
but also only posted 8 wins and a 3.81 ERA (the highest of his career). Many positives
can be taken away for JJ from 2012, but he needs to build on that in 2013 in
order to cash in this off-season. Being that he was the best pitcher in baseball from 2009-2011 according to FIP, I'd say there's a good chance he improves.
2013 Season Preview:
Johnson was one of the two starting pitchers acquired in the
12-player mega-deal with the Miami Marlins. The 6’6 right-hander from Minnesota
has the build and talent to be the ace of this staff, but he is heading into
the season as the number four starter in the revamped Blue Jays rotation. As
Johnson enters his free agent year, you can expect a monster season from the
best number four starter in the game, and who could end up being with the Blue
Jays for a little longer than 2013.
2013 Projected Role:
Will go into the 2013 season penciled
in as the #4 starter, but that’s just to break up the lefties. If Johnson stays healthy he could form a
formidable trio along with Brandon Morrow & R.A. Dickey
2013 PECOTA Projections
174 IP, 12-11 W-L, 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 48.5 GB%.
2013 PECOTA Projections
174 IP, 12-11 W-L, 3.60 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 48.5 GB%.
2012 Stat Line –144.2 IP – 10-11 W-L, 4.01
FIP, 23.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 44.0 GB%
2012 WAR: 0.7 rWAR. 1.7 fWAR. 2.7 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
J.A. Happ came over in a mid-season
trade from Houston, in which Alex Anthopoulos provided Houston with depth
prospects—but nothing noteworthy. At the time Happ was acquired the Jays had a
rare good quality turn thru the rotation, so the Jays decided to use the lefty
out of the bullpen. His stint in the bullpen didn’t last long, as he gave up 4
runs in 7 innings and as the rotation started to weaken, Happ was given a shot.
He ended the year well, with an ERA near 4 after the all-star break, showing
that he could definitely handle a spot in the Blue Jays’ 2013 starting
rotation.
2013 Season Preview
I have all the faith in the world
that J.A. Happ can be a #4 pitcher in the MLB, especially in the #5 spot. His
height creates a great plain for the fastball, which he controls easily in the
92-89 range. Happ will take this job and run, giving the Jays the quality
starts they would’ve loved from Ricky Romero in 2012. Being the fifth pitcher
comes with less pressure from the fans to be crazy successful, but also comes
with more pressure from the minors if they stumble. Happ could thrive under
this scenario and be has a chance to be of the best number 5 in all of Major League
Baseball.
2013 Projected Role
Ricky Romero’s continued struggles
throughout the spring, combined with Happ’s success, led to the decision
ending with Happ starting in Toronto as the fifth starter. If Happ provides
solid innings it’s safe to assume he’ll maintain the year as the fifth
starter. However, if Happ were to
struggle, the club could look to the minors for a replacement, in options like Ricky
Romero and Justin Germano.
2013 PECOTA Projection
125.2 IP, 7-9 W-L, 4.90 ERA, 7.4 K/9,
4.0 BB/9, 39.6 GB%
Casey Janssen– RHP – 31 Years Old
By: Ewan Ross
Sergio Santos – RHP – 29 Years Old
By: Ewan Ross
Darren Oliver – LHP – 42 Years Old
Steve Delabar – RHP – 29 Years Old
By: Ewan Ross
By: Ewan Ross
2012 Stat Line:63.2 IP, 1-1 W-L, 22 Saves, 3.08 FIP, 27.7 K%, 4.5 BB%, 42.4 GB%, 2.67 WPA
2012 WAR:1.2 fWAR, 1.8 rWAR, 1.0 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Coming into the 2012 season, Casey Janssen was expected to have the same role he held in 2011, namely that of primary setup man to newly acquired closer Sergio Santos. All that went out the window when Santos went down with a shoulder injury in April, and Janssen was forced to be installed as the closer. While Janssen doesn’t fit the conventional mold you typically see from closers, given his below average 25% K%, that didn’t stop him from having a spectacular year as the fireman in the Jays bullpen. Relying on his plus command (a BB% lower than 5%), he locked down 22 of his 25 save opportunities. Also unlike almost every other pitcher on the Jays roster, he stayed healthy for the duration of the season.
2013 Season Preview
The question that Casey Janssen faces this season is the same one he’ll have as long as he retains the closer job. Can a pitcher who misses as few bats as Janssen does be an effective closer? I’d much rather see a strikeout artist in the 9th inning, since balls in play have a tendency to find more holes than strikeouts do. That being said, if Janssen can continue to keep his walk rate below 5%, and keep hitters guessing with his deep arsenal, there is no reason to think Janssen won’t continue his run of success.
2013 Projected Role
Janssen will begin the year in the same role he held all of last year, that of the closer. That may not be a permanent role this season. If or when Sergio Santos proves himself healthy, you could see Janssen and him flip roles, and Janssen would return to the setup role he held in 2011.
2013 PECOTA Projection
55.2 IP, 3-1 W-L, 18 Saves, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 48% GB%
By: Ewan Ross
2012 Stat Line:5 IP – 0-1 W-L, 2 Saves, 6.49 FIP, 16.7 K%, 16.7 BB%, 50.0 GB%, (-0.70)WPA
2012 WAR: -0.2 fWAR, -0.4 rWAR, -0.1 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
After being acquired via trade from the Chicago White Sox, there were very high expectations from the former Blue Jays draft pick. Santos was expected to be installed as the closer, and provide a significant upgrade. Unfortunately, his 2012 season was over almost before it started. After just five incredibly ineffective innings, he was shut down with season ending shoulder surgery. This is hardly surprising since, like most converted position players, Santos’ mechanics are disastrous. After undergoing surgery in mid-July, and rehabbing all off-season he is back ready to go at the start of 2013.
2013 Season Preview
Now with a clean bill of health, Santos is ready to continue his career. While the words “shoulder surgery” should scare anyone with even a passing knowledge of pitcher health (hello, Dustin McGowan), Santos has looked quite promising in spring training despite quite poor statistics. Given both his past injuries, as well as the cringe worthy mechanics you never know when he might wind up back on the disabled list, but let’s just keep our fingers crossed he can stay healthy and on the mound.
When Santos is healthy he has the potential to be one of the best closers in baseball. He showed this in 2011, converting 30 of his 36 save opportunities, and powered by his awe inspiring slider posted a strikeout % of more than 35%. If he can return to his 2011 form, Santos could be a key element of the Jays revamped bullpen.
2013 Projected Role
Santos will start the year as the primary right handed setup man to closer Casey Janssen. As the season progresses we might see those roles flipped, since Santos has the more conventional stuff you would expect from your closer. One last thing, is that because of the injuries we might see Santos’ workload restricted at least early on in the season.
2013 PECOTA Projection
43 IP, 2-1 W-L, 16 Saves, 10.7 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 42% GB%
By: Ewan Ross
2012 Stat Line:56.2 IP – 3-4 W-L, 2 Saves, 2.95 FIP, 23.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 44.2 GB%, 1.58 WPA
2012 WAR:1.1 fWAR, 1.9 bWAR, 0.5 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Darren Oliver continues to fight off the impending doom that father time has in mind for the rest of the human population. Remarkably at the age of 41, he managed to put together the best season of his career. He was managed very carefully by the Blue Jays staff so as to minimize strain on his old man arm, such as not being used on back to back days. While this kept his innings total down, that can also be credited to a certain degree with his stellar production.
2013 Preview
While there was heavy speculation during the offseason that Oliver would call it a career, he is indeed back for an incredible 19th major league season. Oliver projects to be the primary left handed setup man in the Blue Jays bullpen, and should see similar restrictions on his usage that he saw last season. However, unlike last season, the Jays go into 2013 with a full complement of 3 left handed relievers (in addition to “fake lefty” Steve Delabar), so as to not be short handed on days when Oliver is unavailable.
Of course the question with any 42 year old pitcher is if this is indeed the year that he loses the race against father time. However, barring age related attrition there is very little to fear from Oliver, as he’s been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in MLB for the past 5 years. He hasn’t posted an ERA north of 3 since 2008, and there’s no reason to think that should change this upcoming season.
2013 Projected Role
Primary left handed setup man, and provide stellar leadership to the rest of the young relievers in the Jays bullpen.
2013 PECOTA Projection
51.2 IP, 3-1 W-L, 1 Save, 3.49 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 46% GB%
By: Ewan Ross
2012 Stat Line –66 IP, 4-3 W-L, 0 Saves, 4.08 FIP, 33.6 K%, 9.5 BB%, 42.9 GB%, (-0.57) WPA
2012 WAR:0.2 fWAR, 0.5 rWAR, 0.3 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
In 2012, Delabar continued his miracle return to baseball. He had walked away from the game for two seasons after struggling with injuries. After rocketing from A ball all the way to the major leagues in 2011, he established himself as a very capable member of the Seattle bullpen, before being acquired at the trade deadline in exchange for outfielder Eric Thames.
2013 Season Preview
Delabar’s sky high strikeout rate, as well as his ability to face both left handed and right handed batters means he’ll play a major role in the Blue Jays bullpen. While Delabar struggled with an increased HR rate, almost all those came off his slider, which was largely scrapped in the latter half of the year. As long as Mr. Delabar relies on his plus fastball, and his nasty split change as his primary secondary offering I’m very positive on him this upcoming season.
2013 Projected Role
Primary 7th inning setup man, against both left handed, and right handed batters.
2013 PECOTA Projection –
51.2 IP, 2-1 W-L, 0 Saves, 4.23 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 43 GB%
Brett Cecil-LHP-26 years old
By: Gideon Turk
2012 Stat Line: 61.1 IP, 2-4 W-L, 0 SV, 5.03 FIP, 18.9 K%, 8.5 BB%, 37.0 GB%, -1.20 WPA
2012 WAR: -0.3 rWAR. 0.1 fWAR. 0.4 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Last season started off on the wrong foot for the lefty Cecil. He never built up his velocity in camp, and was sent down to AA New Hampshire to begin the season. After working his way back onto the Blue Jays roster, he struggled as a starter, and was sent back down to the minors in early August. But, when Brett came back up in September, he was brought up as a reliever, which in turn led to increased velocity and
2013 Season Preview
Brett is on the 25-man roster to begin the year, but might only be for a couple of weeks. He's the 3rd lefty in the bullpen behind both Darren Oliver and Aaron Loup, so work might be hard for him to find these next few games. After doing the "Steve Delabar" program in the off-season, Brett looks to use increased velocity and shorter outing to his advantage as he fights to stay on this team. If he does make it past mid-April, Brett should have a great year yielding the platoon advantage when he faces those lefties that Gibby is sure to put him in against.
2013 Projected Role
3rd lefty out of the pen. LOOGY. Mop-up guy. Long man. 7th-8th pitcher in the bullpen. Role up in the air until Brett Lawrie comes back from the disabled list. In competition with Jeffress to stay up with the big club.
2013 PECOTA Projection
30 IP, 1-1 W-L, 0 SV, 4.57 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 46.7 GB%
By: Gideon Turk
2012 Stat Line: 78.2 IP, 3-3 W-L, 0 SV, 3.48 FIP, 23.9 K%, 8.6 BB%, 47.4 GB%, 0.42 WPA
2012 WAR: 1.0 rWAR. 0.9 fWAR. 1.0 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
It was a tail of two seasons for the Dominican pitcher acquired last November by the Blue Jays. Through 25 innings last year in Colorado with the Rockies, Rogers pitched to an ERA over 8.00, and was then traded to the Indians. 44 appearances later, Rogers cut his ERA down to the mid-4's, increased his K% by 2% to over 24%, and cut his BB% by 8% to the mid 5-s. I guess you can say it was a nice second half for Rogers.
2013 Season Preview
Rogers comes into 2013 with a guaranteed role in the bullpen, and the faith of management to get guys out in big situations. Gibby will use his live arm late in the ball game to sit batters down, but Rogers is going to have to keep up his numbers from the second half last year if he wants to continue to get opportunities. The Jays aren't going to watch anybody fail at the big league level, and have good depth guys in AAA, so dominance is the only option for Esmil. As long as Colorado Rogers doesn't come back...
2013 Projected Role
Esmil is going to be used a lot this year, whether it be late in the game or as a mop up guy. He'll get his fair share if time on the mound, and because he's out of options, he's going to be given some rope as well.
2013 PECOTA Projection
43 IP, 2-1 W-L, 0 SV, 5.30 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 45.1 GB%
Jeremy Jeffress-RHP-25 years old
By: Gideon Turk
2012 Stat Line: 13.1 IP, 0-0 W-L, 0 SV, 4.07 FIP, 17.8 K%, 17.8 BB%, 47.8 GB%, -0.44 WPA
2012 WAR: -0.5 rWAR. 0.0 fWAR. -0.2 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
In the smallest of samples at the major league level (13.1 IP), Jeffress looked good, until his last two appearances, where he gave up 9 earned runs in 3 innings. Until then he had pitched well, averaging over a strike out per inning with an ERA under 1. In the minors, he had a 4.97 ERA, but still maintained that HIGH(hahahahaha) K/9 rate that comes when you throw 99 MPH consistently.
2013 Season Preview
Jeffress will be fighting with Brett Cecil until Lawrie comes back for the last bullpen spot, but Jeffress seems to have the advantage because of the numerous amount of lefties in the bullpen already, which makes Cecil redundant. If Jeffress cannot pick up his game from the spring where he did not look good at all, he'll be exposed to waivers, and likely picked up by the Astros, or Marlins, or Mets, or any 90+ loss teams. There will always be room in the majors for flamethrowers like Jeffress, but on a team looking for a championship like Toronto, there might not be one.
2013 Projected Role
7th-8th reliever until Lawrie comes back. Then threat of being exposed to waivers sets in. Long man if Cecil or Rogers not ready.
2013 PECOTA Projection
34.1 IP, 2-1 W-L, 0 SV, 5.22 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 5.9 BB/9, 49.9 GB%
By: Gideon Turk
2012 Stat Line: 30.2 IP, 0-2 W-L, 0 SV, 1.92 FIP, 18.0 K%, 1.7 BB%, 55.4 GB%, 0.30 WPA
2012 WAR: 0.6 rWAR. 0.9 fWAR. 0.5 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Of all the rookies to make their major league debuts with the Blue Jays in 2012, Loup's performance was easily the best. He got half a season in with the big club workload wise(for a reliever of course), and was nothing short of fabulous. He never let the ball leave the park, struck guys out, and almost never put a guy on base via the walk. Of course, this was all in a small sample size, but his numbers were enough to earn him a spot in the bullpen out of the gate this season, even though he has options and other guys don't.
2013 Season Preview
There are a lot of questions about whether Loup will be able to continue his 2012 success in the future because of the cloud of whether or not he features "good stuff" or if it's just deception. Apparently they've lowered his arm slot even more, which has brought another uptick in velocity, and at the same time has increased his chances that he stays in Toronto all year. Another question about him is whether or not he'll be able to retire righties as proficiently as lefties, but only time will tell for exciting young pitcher.
2013 Projected Role
Loup will be the 2nd lefty out of the pen behind Darren Oliver, and as we saw yesterday in the opener, he should get some mop up time as well. He could still be sent down when Brett Lawrie comes back, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Blue Jays LOVE this guy. #LoveThisGuy
2013 PECOTA Projection
2012 Stat Line: 30.2 IP, 0-2 W-L, 0 SV, 1.92 FIP, 18.0 K%, 1.7 BB%, 55.4 GB%, 0.30 WPA
2012 WAR: 0.6 rWAR. 0.9 fWAR. 0.5 bbWAR
2012 Season in Review
Of all the rookies to make their major league debuts with the Blue Jays in 2012, Loup's performance was easily the best. He got half a season in with the big club workload wise(for a reliever of course), and was nothing short of fabulous. He never let the ball leave the park, struck guys out, and almost never put a guy on base via the walk. Of course, this was all in a small sample size, but his numbers were enough to earn him a spot in the bullpen out of the gate this season, even though he has options and other guys don't.
2013 Season Preview
There are a lot of questions about whether Loup will be able to continue his 2012 success in the future because of the cloud of whether or not he features "good stuff" or if it's just deception. Apparently they've lowered his arm slot even more, which has brought another uptick in velocity, and at the same time has increased his chances that he stays in Toronto all year. Another question about him is whether or not he'll be able to retire righties as proficiently as lefties, but only time will tell for exciting young pitcher.
2013 Projected Role
Loup will be the 2nd lefty out of the pen behind Darren Oliver, and as we saw yesterday in the opener, he should get some mop up time as well. He could still be sent down when Brett Lawrie comes back, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Blue Jays LOVE this guy. #LoveThisGuy
2013 PECOTA Projection
43 IP, 2-1 W-L, 0 SV, 5.31 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 46.5 GB%
That's it for the pitchers. Go Jays!
That's it for the pitchers. Go Jays!
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